- risk of a further wave of coronavirus infections due to a more infectious mutation of the virus – the economic effects should be less severe than in spring (the effect of adaptations in the economy and the gradually growing effect of the vaccinations),
- speed of the global economic recovery from the deep recession caused by the pandemic, including the countries which were the main export markets for Polish entrepreneurs,
- further resurgence of the global trade related to the economic recovery in China and high global investment activity (ecological investments, fiscal aid programmes),
- continuation of the vaccination programmes in Europe, the United States and the Middle East, which gives hope that the economic activity will return in the second half of the year, uninterrupted by any further lockdowns,
- positive effects of the monetary policy easing in 2020 by the key central banks, mainly using non-standard tools such as asset purchase programmes and credit action support programmes for the non-financial sector; at the end of the year a gradual normalization of the monetary policy is possible,
- positive effects of the fiscal rescue packages announced by various governments and by the European Commission, targeting employment, protection of liquidity of companies and demand stimulation, and their gradual phasing out,
- risk of a wave of insolvencies of certain countries,
- political and economic conditions in Ukraine.
The economic conditions in Poland and around the world, new regulatory solutions and tax solutions may have a material impact on the operations of the PKO Bank Polski Group in 2021.
The most important risk factors identified in these areas concern:
- fast revival of the economic activity after the sudden drop caused by the pandemic in 2020, supported by the nature of the fiscal impulse and decrease in savings triggered by the pandemic,
- effects of hibernation of the labour market in 2020 and potential deterioration of the situation after the PFR Financial Shield expires,
- process of adapting the economy to the post-pandemic reality – restructuring of employment and operations in industries most affected by chronic negative effects of the pandemic. Thanks to the resurgence of demand at a macro level, the process should have the character of “creative destruction”, but may temporarily cause turbulences on the local labour markets,
- probable stabilization of NBP interest rates at a record low, possible further activity of the NBP on the currency market to reduce appreciation of the PLN,
- increase in inflation is probable after its drop at the beginning of 2021, on average it will probably exceed 3% in 2021,
- rebuilding of trade and foreign exchange after the crisis drop, probably at a much lower scale of trade in the international travel and tourist industry (at least in the first half of the year) accompanied by a clear increase in exports of goods,
- persistent high level of uncertainty with respect to further development of the pandemic and its economic impacts, leading to risk aversion and increased volatility on the market and in economic trends,
- probable gradual recovery of the investment activity related to inflows of funds from the EU reconstruction programme and ecological investments,
- weak demand for loans accompanied by a higher volume of deposits (effect of anti-crisis actions).
- further solutions under the Government Anti-Crisis Shields (including: PFR Financial Shield 2.0),
- draft act on amending the Act on the Bank Guarantee Fund, deposit guarantee scheme and compulsory resolution, and certain other acts, transposing BRRD2 to the Polish legal system,
- drafting amendments to the Regulation of the Minister of Finance on the criteria and method of performing the supervisory review and evaluation process in banks. The purpose of the draft is to make the necessary amendments to the Polish legal system in connection with the EU legal regulations relating to capital requirements for financial institutions (the so-called CRD V/CRR II package) entering into force,
- potential statutory solutions relating to the transfer of funds accumulated in Open Pension Funds (OFE) to individual pension accounts or to the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS),
- potential regulatory solutions which apply to foreign currency housing loans for households. They relate both to those resulting from the judgment of EUCoJ of 3 October 2019, and from potential further court judgments determining the line of interpretation in the case of Polish courts finding abusive provisions in loan agreements.
- as of 1 January 2021, regulations amending the income tax acts became binding which, among other things, introduced the duty to prepare and show on their websites information on the pursued tax strategy for taxpayers with annual revenue exceeding EUR 50 million and for Tax Groups. This duty has to be performed by the end of the twelfth month following the end of the fiscal year (pursuant to the communique of the Ministry of Finance the first such information has to be prepared for 2020).